Hidden / undisclosed odds
The probability of outcomes in a paid randomised reward is withheld, buried, or hard to verify.
- Code
- M2
- Category
- Monetary & randomised
- Severity
- High
- Evidence
- StrongCentral to gambling-regulation analyses; disclosure is a leading policy remedy.
- Purpose served
- Serves businessPrimarily serves the provider's revenue, retention, or data — the most suspect.
- Mechanism family
- Sneaking / Hiding
- Platforms
- Mobile / F2P · PC / console
- Harm vectors
- FinancialAutonomy / choice
- Modes
- Deceptive
- Also known as
- undisclosed probabilities, drop-rate opacity
How it works
Drop rates are omitted, hidden in submenus, or stated in ways players cannot verify, so the true expected value of a purchase is unknowable at the point of sale.
Why it can be harmful
Without odds, players cannot form an accurate belief about what their money buys — a textbook deceptive failure of material transparency. Mandatory odds disclosure is among the most widely proposed regulatory fixes.
Examples in the wild
- A loot box that lists items but not their drop rates
- Odds shown only in an external web page, not in the purchase flow
Illustrative genre examples to aid recognition — not allegations about specific titles.
References
- Xiao, L. Y.; Henderson, L. L.; Nielsen, R. K. L. (2022). Regulating gambling-like video game loot boxes: A public health framework comparing industry self-regulation, existing national legal approaches, and other potential approaches. Current Addiction Reports. doi.org/10.1007/s40429-022-00424-9 · citing patterns
- Petrovskaya, E.; Zendle, D. (2022). Predatory monetisation? A categorisation of unfair, misleading and aggressive monetisation techniques in digital games from the player perspective. Journal of Business Ethics. doi.org/10.1007/s10551-021-04970-6 · citing patterns
Related patterns
Comparison prevention
Making it hard to compare prices, odds, or options so players can't judge value.
Hidden costs
The true cost of a purchase is revealed late, or never.
Language inaccessibility / complex copy
Important purchase, privacy, odds, or consent information is presented in language the player cannot reasonably understand.
Disguised ads / content
Ads are styled as gameplay or rewards so the player cannot tell promotion from play.
Loot boxes / gacha
Paid, randomised reward containers whose contents — and often whose odds — are unknown before purchase.
Optimism & frequency bias
Framing that inflates perceived chances of winning — emphasising wins and near-misses, downplaying losses — to exploit optimism and frequency illusions.